Energy Transition Justice: Who Wins and Who Gets Left Behind?

The race to decarbonise the global economy is on. Wind turbines are spinning up, solar panels are proliferating, and EV adoption is accelerating. But beneath the surface of this green revolution lies an uncomfortable truth: without careful planning, the transition to clean energy could replicate — or even deepen — old inequalities.

In September, the Democratic Republic of Congo extended its cobalt export ban, tightening its grip on a resource that powers the world's electric vehicle batteries. Meanwhile, Namibia is pushing ahead with bold new policies requiring 51% local ownership of new mining ventures and banning the export of unprocessed lithium and rare earth minerals unless processed locally. These are not isolated moves — they are part of a global trend toward asserting sovereignty over critical minerals.

This is where the question of energy transition justice becomes urgent: Will the green economy lift up the communities providing its raw materials, or simply extract their resources while value creation happens elsewhere?

The New Resource Race

The energy transition is mineral intensive. An electric vehicle requires six times more mineral inputs than a conventional car. Wind and solar infrastructure rely heavily on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements. Over 70% of cobalt comes from the DRC, while Namibia and South Africa hold key reserves of uranium and rare earths.

But the extraction boom carries familiar risks:

• Labour exploitation: Artisanal miners, including children, still dig cobalt from unsafe pits.
• Environmental damage: Communities face toxic runoff, deforestation, and water stress from mining operations.
• Value extraction: Most minerals are exported raw, meaning local economies capture little of the value once products hit global markets.

Without reform, the "green gold rush" risks looking a lot like the resource booms of the past — enriching a few while leaving behind polluted landscapes and impoverished workers.

Signs of a Shift: Sovereignty and Supply Chains

Governments in the Global South are starting to push back. Namibia's policies to require local processing and ownership are designed to keep more value in-country, though mining chambers warn that rigid rules could deter foreign investment. The DRC's cobalt export ban, extended beyond its initial four months, is both a bid for market leverage and a test of how global supply chains adapt.

At a global level, South Africa's G20 Presidency is pushing for principles on inclusive growth and equitable benefit sharing for critical minerals. Civil society is calling for community benefit agreements, worker protections, and stronger local processing requirements — signalling that justice is becoming a mainstream part of the energy transition agenda.

Solutions for a Fair Transition

For business leaders and policymakers, the goal isn't just to secure minerals — it's to build ethical, resilient, and future-proof supply chains. Here's what that could look like:

1. Build Local Value Chains Invest in local processing plants and skills development so that mineral-rich countries capture more than just extraction rents. Public-private partnerships can help finance infrastructure that benefits communities beyond mining.

2. Prioritise Community Benefit Agreements Formalise commitments to local hiring, fair wages, and reinvestment in education, healthcare, and economic diversification. This turns short-term extraction into long-term prosperity.

3. Enforce Traceability and Transparency Use blockchain-based traceability and third-party audits to ensure minerals are ethically sourced and free of child labour or human rights abuses.

4. Align with Global Standards Adopt OECD Due Diligence Guidance and TNFD frameworks, aligning reporting with both environmental and social impact.

5. Engage with Policymakers Rather than resisting local content rules, companies should collaborate with governments to design regulations that balance investment attractiveness with fair distribution of benefits.

The Stakes for Business

Companies that fail to engage with these justice issues face significant risk: supply chain disruption, reputational damage, and exclusion from ESG-conscious capital. On the other hand, those that embrace ethical sourcing can create competitive advantages and secure long-term access to critical minerals.

The energy transition is not just an engineering challenge — it's a geopolitical and moral one. The choices made now will determine whether the clean energy future is genuinely inclusive or merely a new form of extractive colonialism.

The Question for Leaders

Will your organisation be remembered as a partner in building a fair energy future — or as one of the players that repeated the mistakes of the past? The transition to renewables is inevitable. Justice within that transition is optional — but it shouldn't be.

How is your company approaching mineral sourcing, local partnerships, and community impact? What steps are you taking to ensure your supply chains are ethical and resilient?